{"id":48646,"date":"2025-12-26T12:07:35","date_gmt":"2025-12-26T12:07:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/journalintegration.com\/?p=48646"},"modified":"2025-12-26T12:07:37","modified_gmt":"2025-12-26T12:07:37","slug":"economie-politique-les-indicateurs-rassurent-les-tensions-persistent","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/journalintegration.com\/index.php\/2025\/12\/26\/economie-politique-les-indicateurs-rassurent-les-tensions-persistent\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c9conomie politique : les indicateurs rassurent, les tensions persistent"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

\u00c0 la lecture des projections macro\u00e9conomiques 2025-2026, la sous-r\u00e9gion de la CEMAC semble renouer avec une certaine orthodoxie \u00e9conomique.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

D\u00e9ficits contenus, soldes budg\u00e9taires de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence en am\u00e9lioration, discipline communautaire globalement respect\u00e9e : sur le papier, les fondamentaux se consolident. Des pays comme le Cameroun, le Congo ou le Gabon affichent m\u00eame des performances conformes aux normes r\u00e9gionales. Pourtant, derri\u00e8re cette fa\u00e7ade rassurante, le climat socio-\u00e9conomique demeure lourd, parfois explosif.
Pour le professeur Jean-Claude Tchatchouang, enseignant d\u2019\u00e9conomie publique, \u00ab la CEMAC a clairement am\u00e9lior\u00e9 sa gestion macro\u00e9conomique, mais elle reste prisonni\u00e8re d\u2019une lecture technocratique de la stabilit\u00e9. Les ratios sont bons, mais ils ne disent rien de la qualit\u00e9 de la croissance ni de sa redistribution \u00bb. Un constat largement partag\u00e9 dans les cercles acad\u00e9miques, o\u00f9 l\u2019on souligne que la discipline budg\u00e9taire actuelle s\u2019apparente davantage \u00e0 une stabilisation d\u00e9fensive qu\u2019\u00e0 une strat\u00e9gie de d\u00e9veloppement inclusif.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

R\u00e9alit\u00e9<\/strong>
Le paradoxe est d\u00e9sormais bien install\u00e9 : plus les indicateurs macro\u00e9conomiques s\u2019am\u00e9liorent, plus le malaise social devient audible. La rigueur budg\u00e9taire, pr\u00e9sent\u00e9e comme une victoire institutionnelle, est per\u00e7ue par de larges franges de la population comme une aust\u00e9rit\u00e9 silencieuse. Les recettes non p\u00e9troli\u00e8res progressent, mais la pression fiscale s\u2019accentue sur des \u00e9conomies informelles d\u00e9j\u00e0 fragiles. Selon Marie-Th\u00e9r\u00e8se Ndzi\u00e9, analyste en politiques publiques, \u00ab on a demand\u00e9 aux m\u00e9nages d\u2019absorber l\u2019ajustement, sans leur offrir en retour une am\u00e9lioration visible des services sociaux. C\u2019est l\u00e0 que na\u00eet la frustration \u00bb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cette fracture entre chiffres et v\u00e9cu alimente une d\u00e9fiance croissante \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard des politiques \u00e9conomiques. La stabilit\u00e9 vant\u00e9e par les institutions r\u00e9gionales se mesure en tableaux et en pourcentages, tandis que les citoyens la jugent au march\u00e9, dans les transports ou devant leurs factures d\u2019\u00e9nergie. \u00ab La macro\u00e9conomie rassure les bailleurs, mais la micro\u00e9conomie inqui\u00e8te les populations \u00bb, r\u00e9sume Alain Fogaing, consultant ind\u00e9pendant bas\u00e9 \u00e0 Douala.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La situation est d\u2019autant plus d\u00e9licate que la sous-r\u00e9gion reste fortement expos\u00e9e aux chocs ext\u00e9rieurs. D\u00e9pendance aux mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res, volatilit\u00e9 des termes de l\u2019\u00e9change, incertitudes g\u00e9opolitiques : autant de facteurs qui r\u00e9duisent les marges de man\u0153uvre budg\u00e9taires. Face \u00e0 ces contraintes, les \u00c9tats privil\u00e9gient souvent l\u2019\u00e9quilibre comptable au d\u00e9triment de l\u2019investissement social, une strat\u00e9gie que certains experts jugent risqu\u00e9e \u00e0 moyen terme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u2019enjeu central pour la CEMAC est donc politique autant qu\u2019\u00e9conomique. \u00ab La stabilit\u00e9 durable ne se d\u00e9cr\u00e8te pas, elle se ressent \u00bb, insiste le professeur Tchatchouang. Sans redistribution plus \u00e9quitable, sans politiques publiques visibles et sans am\u00e9lioration tangible des conditions de vie, la performance macro\u00e9conomique restera formelle. Et une stabilit\u00e9 qui ne se vit pas finit toujours par se fissurer, rappelant que les indicateurs ne gouvernent pas seuls : les peuples, eux, vivent l\u2019\u00e9conomie au quotidien.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jean-Ren\u00e9 Meva\u2019a Amougou<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ligne \u00e9troite<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dans le Rapport de surveillance multilat\u00e9rale 2024 et perspectives 2025-2026, les chiffres parlent doucement mais frappent fort. D\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire de 0,3 % du PIB en 2025, 0,2 % en 2026 : officiellement, rien d\u2019alarmant. Mieux, le solde budg\u00e9taire de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence s\u2019am\u00e9liore, port\u00e9 par des recettes non p\u00e9troli\u00e8res plus vigoureuses. Sur le papier, la rigueur progresse, la norme communautaire respire et certains \u00c9tats, comme le Cameroun ou le Gabon, se f\u00e9licitent d\u2019\u00eatre dans les clous. Le tableau est presque rassurant, presque \u00e9l\u00e9gant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mais l\u2019\u00e9conomie r\u00e9elle ne lit pas les rapports. Elle se vit. Et l\u00e0, l\u2019embellie statistique ressemble \u00e0 un mirage. Car pendant que les soldes se redressent, les m\u00e9nages s\u2019enfoncent. La balance courante reste d\u00e9ficitaire, les termes de l\u2019\u00e9change se d\u00e9gradent brutalement, et la d\u00e9pendance aux march\u00e9s mondiaux expose la sous-r\u00e9gion aux secousses venues d\u2019Ukraine, du Moyen-Orient ou de Washington. La discipline budg\u00e9taire progresse, certes, mais au prix d\u2019une tension sociale que les agr\u00e9gats macro\u00e9conomiques peinent \u00e0 mesurer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le secteur mon\u00e9taire, lui, injecte du cr\u00e9dit, fait tourner la planche des pourcentages et gonfle la masse mon\u00e9taire. Les banques pr\u00eatent, l\u2019\u00e9conomie respire un peu. Pourtant, le taux de couverture ext\u00e9rieure recule et rappelle une v\u00e9rit\u00e9 simple : la stabilit\u00e9 reste fragile, conditionn\u00e9e aux r\u00e9serves de change et \u00e0 la confiance ext\u00e9rieure. Un faux pas, et la m\u00e9canique se grippe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Au final, la CEMAC avance sur une ligne \u00e9troite, entre discipline et vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9. Les chiffres rassurent les institutions, mais ils n\u2019apaisent pas les frustrations. Tant que la croissance ne se traduira pas en mieux-\u00eatre tangible, les soldes positifs resteront politiquement n\u00e9gatifs. Et l\u2019\u00e9ditorial \u00e9conomique restera celui d\u2019un paradoxe : des comptes qui s\u2019am\u00e9liorent, pendant que la patience des peuples s\u2019\u00e9puise lentement, dangereusement, silencieusement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Politique mon\u00e9taire : Le cr\u00e9dit avance, la stabilit\u00e9 surveille<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dans la sous-r\u00e9gion de la CEMAC, la politique mon\u00e9taire pour 2025-2026 ressemble \u00e0 un funambule confiant : un pas en avant pour soutenir l\u2019\u00e9conomie, un \u0153il riv\u00e9 sur le filet de s\u00e9curit\u00e9.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Les projections annoncent une hausse soutenue des cr\u00e9dits \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9conomie, de 10,7 % en 2025 et 12,5 % en 2026. Sur le papier, les banques pr\u00eatent, les entreprises respirent et la croissance trouve enfin un peu d\u2019oxyg\u00e8ne. \u00c0 ce rythme, m\u00eame le cr\u00e9dit pourrait devenir un produit r\u00e9gional non rare. Constat\u00e9e par le Rapport de surveillance multilat\u00e9rale 2024 et perspectives 2025-2026, cette dynamique est largement encourag\u00e9e par la BEAC, qui maintient une posture d\u2019accompagnement prudent. \u00ab Le cr\u00e9dit est aujourd\u2019hui l\u2019un des rares leviers capables de soutenir l\u2019activit\u00e9 hors p\u00e9trole \u00bb, explique Serge Ngalame, \u00e9conomiste mon\u00e9taire. Selon ce Gabonais, l\u2019expansion du financement bancaire est un signal positif, \u00e0 condition qu\u2019il alimente la production et non la simple consommation import\u00e9e. Autrement dit, pr\u00eater oui, mais pas pour acheter uniquement ce qui vient d\u2019ailleurs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

En parall\u00e8le, la masse mon\u00e9taire suivrait la m\u00eame trajectoire ascendante, avec une progression de plus de 11 % en 2025. De quoi inqui\u00e9ter les puristes, toujours prompts \u00e0 brandir le spectre de l\u2019inflation. Pour Dr Sandrine Ekosso Ngoll\u00e9, analyste bancaire, \u00ab l\u2019augmentation de la masse mon\u00e9taire n\u2019est pas un probl\u00e8me en soi, tant qu\u2019elle accompagne une \u00e9conomie r\u00e9elle dynamique. Le danger serait de cr\u00e9er de la liquidit\u00e9 sans cr\u00e9ation de valeur \u00bb. En clair, imprimer des chiffres sans produire de richesses reste un sport risqu\u00e9, m\u00eame sous les tropiques.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mais attention !
<\/strong>Le revers du d\u00e9cor se lit du c\u00f4t\u00e9 des r\u00e9serves. Le taux de couverture ext\u00e9rieure de la monnaie se replierait autour de 72 %, rappelant que la stabilit\u00e9 mon\u00e9taire demeure \u00e9troitement li\u00e9e aux avoirs ext\u00e9rieurs. \u00ab C\u2019est la boussole silencieuse de la CEMAC \u00bb, ironise un cadre bancaire, \u00ab quand elle tremble, tout le monde regarde la mer \u00bb. Si les avoirs ext\u00e9rieurs nets se redressent en 2026, la d\u00e9pendance aux flux de capitaux et aux recettes d\u2019exportation reste forte.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Au final, la politique mon\u00e9taire avance, confiante mais vigilante. Le cr\u00e9dit progresse, l\u2019\u00e9conomie s\u2019anime, mais l\u2019\u00e9quilibre reste fragile. Comme le r\u00e9sume Serge Ngalame avec humour : \u00ab La CEMAC a trouv\u00e9 l\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e9rateur, mais elle n\u2019a pas encore renforc\u00e9 les freins \u00bb. Toute la question est l\u00e0 : soutenir la croissance sans perdre la stabilit\u00e9, et pr\u00eater sans hypoth\u00e9quer demain. Un exercice d\u2019\u00e9quilibriste, certes, mais d\u00e9sormais assum\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ongoung Zong Bella<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00c0 la lecture des projections macro\u00e9conomiques 2025-2026, la sous-r\u00e9gion de la CEMAC semble renouer avec une certaine orthodoxie \u00e9conomique. D\u00e9ficits contenus, soldes budg\u00e9taires de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence en am\u00e9lioration, discipline communautaire globalement respect\u00e9e : sur le papier, les fondamentaux se consolident. Des pays comme le Cameroun, le Congo ou le Gabon affichent m\u00eame des performances conformes aux […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":48647,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[25,51],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48646","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-integration-regionale","category-zoom"],"yoast_head":"\n\u00c9conomie politique : les indicateurs rassurent, les tensions persistent - Int\u00e9gration<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u00c9conomie politique : les indicateurs rassurent, les tensions persistent\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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